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Monmouth U Releases NH Projections In Shrinking GOP Race

Monmouth University has released poll results just ahead of the second Republican primary of the 2024 presidential campaign.

Former President Donald Trump leads former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley before New Hampshire's 2024 Republican primary, according to a Monmouth University poll.

Former President Donald Trump leads former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley before New Hampshire's 2024 Republican primary, according to a Monmouth University poll.

Photo Credit: Pictures Courtesy: Wikimedia Commons/Gage Skidmore

The poll shows former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley gaining independent support, but still trailing former President Donald Trump in New Hampshire.

It says 52 percent of New Hampshire GOP voters supported Trump, while 34 percent backed Haley. The poll was run in partnership with The Washington Post.

The poll was conducted between Tuesday, Jan. 16, and Saturday, Jan. 20. That was right before Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced he was suspending his campaign on Sunday, Jan. 21.

Gov. DeSantis was in third place in the Monmouth poll at eight percent, virtually the same as the seven percent support he received in November. Monmouth said Desantis' supporters were twice as likely to name Trump as their second choice than Haley.

A significant number of Democratic-leaning independents could participate in the Granite State's Republican primary on Tuesday, Jan. 23, according to the pollsters. The number of registered independents planning to vote in the GOP primary is up from 52 percent in November to 63 percent in January.

Haley has a ten-point advantage over Trump among independents (48 to 38 percent), but pollsters said it may not be large enough.

“Even with a bump in the number of Democratic leaners turning out in the Republican primary, Haley is not able to catch the front-runner," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. "Trump’s base continues to be more committed and more motivated than other primary voters."

The support for Trump, who won the Iowa caucuses on Monday, Jan. 15, comes as the former President faces 91 criminal charges in four separate indictments. Trump is also embroiled in a civil defamation trial against E. Jean Carroll, who he was found liable in a separate trial for sexually assaulting back in 1996.

The Monmouth poll also said 40 percent of primary voters would be enthusiastic if Trump won the GOP nomination. Twenty-four percent said they'd be satisfied, another 24 percent said they'd be upset, and 12 percent said they'd be dissatisfied.

For Haley, only 17 percent said they'd be enthusiastic if she was the Republican nominee for President. Thirty-six percent said they'd be satisfied, 25 percent said they'd be dissatisfied, and 19 percent said they'd be upset.

Trump holds at least a 25-point lead over Haley in support from primary voters on immigration, economic, and foreign policy issues. The former President also leads the former South Carolina governor in support for his abortion policy by a smaller 11 percent margin.

New Jersey's Republican primary is scheduled for Tuesday, June 4.

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